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Prediction for CME (2024-03-23T01:25:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2024-03-23T01:25Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/29715/-1
CME Note: Bright partial halo CME first seen to the north in SOHO LASCO C2 (appearing a few timestamps before the second northern front of 2024-03-23T01:48Z CME and earlier than the faint full halo to the SW). The CME is associated with the X1.1-class flare from Active Region 3614 centered ~N25E07 and with associated eruption seen as EUV wave in SDO AIA 193, and as a NE-SW oriented large area of dimming/post eruptive arcades centered ~around Active Region 3614. X-class flare was accompanied by/contributed to by concurrent flare from Active Region 3615 (S14E15). Combined arrival of this CME with CME: 2024-03-23T01:48Z was detected at L1 by DSCOVR and ACE at 2024-03-24T14:10Z. The arrival signature is characterized by sharp increase in B-total from 6nT to 26nT, reaching 33nT and by a jump in solar wind speed from about 550 km/s to 851 km/s, with a peak of 880 km/s and an increase in density and temperature seen at ~14:10Z.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2024-03-24T14:10Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 8.0

Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-03-24T16:49Z (-5.41h, +5.41h)
Prediction Method: ELEvo
Prediction Method Note:

CME input parameters:

updated initial parameters for ELEvo using the actual shock arrival time at Solar Orbiter: 2024-03-23T13:30:00Z

Apex direction (deg): +2.0
Inverse ellipse aspect ratio: 0.7
Angular half width (in ecliptic, deg): 35

initial CME speed: 1312.5 (+/- 50) km/s
initial height: 21.5 R_sun
initial time: 2024-03-23T03:19Z
drag parameter: 0.11e-7 (+/- 0.025e-7) /km 
ambient solar wind speed: 420 (+/- 50) km/s
time step: 10 min
ensemble members: 50k

Lead Time: 15.73 hour(s)
Difference: -2.65 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Eva Weiler (ASWO) on 2024-03-23T22:26Z

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